June 27, 2018
Population growth and rising disposable income will be the main trigger to increase demand of Indian vegetable oil significantly with a CAGR of 3 per cent to exceed 34 million tonne by 2030, with the per capita consumption pegged at 24 kg in 2030, according to the RaboResearch report “The Future of India’s Edible Oil Industry: How Will India’s Vegetable Oil Demand Shape Up by 2030?”
India’s vegetable oil consumption has grown at a 5 per cent CAGR over the past decade to reach 23.1 million tonne in 2017 as compared to 13.5 million tonne in 2007.
And it is impossible for domestic oil seed production growth to meet with rising demand, which has been range bound between 6.5 million tonne and 8.5 million tonne in the past decade, will push India’s vegetable oil imports to over 25 million tonne by 2030.
Rabobank states that India accounts for 4 per cent of global vegetable oil production, 12 per cent of global consumption and 21% of global traded volumes.
Driven by low domestic supplies, palm oil, soy oil, and sunflower oil will continue to represent more than 98 per cent of total vegetable oil imports. Palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia will continue to take the lion’s share at 60 per cent of total imports in 2030, followed by South American soy oil taking a 24 per cent share and sunflower oil from the Black Sea Region taking a 14 per cent market share, respectively.
India produces nine types of oil seeds but the oil seed production has been low at a CAGR of 1 per cent since 2010 to touch 38 million tonne in 2017 from 33 million tonne. Poor soil conditions and lower farm inputs have meant low yields when compared to the global averages. Less than 25 per cent of India’s oil seed acreage is irrigated, says the report.
Palm oil imports continue to grow at a CAGR of 10 per cent from 3.2 million tonne in 2007 to 9.3 million tonne in 2017. Domestic palm oil production in 2017 stood at 2,30,000 tonne , which is just over 2 per cent of India’s palm oil consumption.