The ongoing global tariff conflict, initiated by the United States, is reshaping the global dairy trade — and India stands to gain big. According to Jayen Mehta, Managing Director of Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation (GCMMF), which owns iconic dairy brand Amul, India could capture up to half of the US dairy export market, thanks to growing disruptions and retaliatory tariffs.
Nearly 50% of US dairy exports are directed to regions surrounding India, including West Asia, North Africa, Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, China, Japan, and South Korea — many of which are now reconsidering their trade strategies due to heightened import duties from the US.
“We believe many of these nations would turn to an alternative dairy supplier,” Mehta said. “As the world’s largest milk producer, India is well-positioned to capitalise on this situation.”
This geopolitical shift follows a wave of retaliatory measures against the US. For instance, China has already imposed a 34% tariff on US imports. Several other countries have also expressed dissatisfaction and may follow suit with similar tariff hikes.
While India may not compete in South American and European markets due to logistical constraints, Mehta believes the opportunity to penetrate Asian and African markets is significant. “India was already on the path to become the dairy of the world. The tariff war will only accelerate the process,” he noted.
Industry experts echo this optimism, pointing to the potential for India to diversify its export destinations and strengthen its position as a global dairy supplier amid shifting trade dynamics.
The evolving scenario could mark a new chapter for India’s dairy sector on the global stage — not just as the largest milk producer but as a rising dairy exporter with expanding global influence.