Confectionery prices are expected to climb this Valentine’s Day as manufacturers respond to soaring cocoa costs, placing additional pressure on consumers already grappling with higher food prices.
Cocoa futures have doubled since October 2024, marking the sharpest increase in five decades. The surge has been driven by adverse weather conditions and labor challenges in West Africa, where the majority of the world’s cocoa is produced. Heavy rainfall followed by prolonged drought severely impacted crop yields, with cocoa production in the Ivory Coast reportedly declining by over 22% compared to the previous year.
The supply squeeze has forced chocolate makers to adjust their strategies. During last year’s Halloween season, some major confectionery companies increased production of non-chocolate sweets to mitigate the impact of rising cocoa costs. Product lineups featured smaller chocolate portions alongside alternative treats like cinnamon-flavored bars and gummy candies.
Industry analysts predict that premium chocolate brands will continue raising prices to offset rising ingredient costs. Meanwhile, mass-market producers may face challenges meeting demand without significantly increasing retail prices.
In the past year, chocolate sales reached a record $21.4 billion, with nearly two-thirds of consumers indulging in cocoa-based treats. As Valentine’s Day approaches, shoppers can expect higher price tags on their favorite chocolate gifts, reflecting the ongoing turbulence in the global cocoa market.