Diabetes will grow in every country during the next 30 years.
According to a new study published in The Lancet, the number of diabetics is expected to more than double, growing from 529 million in 2021 to 1.3 billion by 2050. Diabetes has surpassed other diseases on a global scale, posing a significant hazard to individuals and healthcare systems, according to the experts.
Diabetes is a chronic disease characterised by high blood sugar levels that can affect the heart, blood vessels, eyes, kidneys, and nerves. The majority of occurrences are type 2 diabetes, which is linked to obesity and is mostly avoidable. According to the report, both type 1 and type 2 diabetes are becoming increasingly frequent among young people.
Diabetes is becoming more common due to two major factors: rising obesity rates and shifting demographics. According to the researchers, the COVID-19 epidemic has also increased diabetes inequality internationally. People with diabetes are twice as likely as those without diabetes to get severe COVID-19 infection and die.
“The rapid rate at which diabetes is growing is not only alarming, but also challenging for every health system in the world, especially given how the disease also increases the risk for ischemic heart disease and stroke,” said Liane Ong, study lead author and researcher at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, in a statement.
The researchers examined diabetes prevalence, morbidity, and mortality in 204 nations and territories by age and gender between 1990 and 2021, projecting prevalence by 2050. They also gave type 1 and type 2 burden estimates, as well as defined the fraction of type 2 burden related to 16 risk variables.
Cardiovascular illnesses are the leading cause of mortality globally, outnumbering all other causes, including diabetes, which ranks ninth. Nonetheless, when the world’s population exceeds almost 10 billion by 2050, diabetes is anticipated to rise even higher, hitting one in every seven people by mid-century.
While every country will be affected, the increase will not be uniformly distributed. The prevalence rate in North Africa and the Middle East is expected to reach 16.8% by 2050, while it is expected to reach 11.3% in Latin America and the Caribbean. In comparison, the global prevalence by 2050 is expected to be 9.8%, with the present prevalence being at 6.1%.
The study also examined how racism affects diabetes, particularly in high-income nations where incidence of the disease are 1.5 times higher in minority populations. About 75 percent of individuals with diabetes will live in low- and middle-income nations by 2050. Additionally, these nations will have diabetes mortality rates that are twice as high as those of high-income nations.
In a statement, research co-author Leonard Egede claimed that discriminatory practises such residential segregation have an impact on where individuals live, their access to enough and wholesome food, and their use of medical services.
People from historically marginalised racial and ethnic groups have significant differences in care and clinical outcomes as a result of this cascade of growing diabetes disparity.
The study is a part of an extensive diabetes series that was published in The Lancet. The researchers emphasised the urgent requirement for more effective diabetes impact mitigation techniques, emphasising the significance of reducing inequality. They demanded that people become more conscious of these discrepancies and take action to improve healthcare.