Global chocolate makers face a fresh cost crunch as Turkey’s hazelnut harvest—accounting for two-thirds of the world’s supply—is expected to plunge by over 36% this year following the worst spring frost in decades.
The Turkish Grain Board projects output at 453,000 tons in 2025, down from 717,000 tons last year, and has raised the price it pays farmers by roughly 50% to offset the damage. The April cold snap has devastated orchards in the Black Sea region, threatening to push prices higher in a market already strained by record cocoa costs.
The double blow is squeezing confectionery makers worldwide. Cocoa prices hit all-time highs in December after poor harvests in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, prompting brands to shrink product sizes or adjust recipes. Now, soaring hazelnut costs could force further changes.
Nutella-maker Ferrero, the world’s largest hazelnut buyer, has yet to comment on the Turkish forecast. Other producers are already cutting back: Tayas Gida has reduced hazelnut content in some chocolate bars from 30% to as low as 10% this year.
“This is the reality—we either reduce the amount we use, or remove it altogether,” said Kazim Tayci, vice chairman of Tayas Gida.
The situation underscores the food industry’s growing vulnerability to climate change. Unpredictable weather patterns have already driven up prices for coffee, cocoa, and olive oil. The Turkish Grain Board’s general manager, Ahmet Guldal, warned that the current forecast may still be “optimistic” as harvesting continues over the next two months.
For chocolatiers and consumers alike, the combined surge in cocoa and hazelnut prices could mean higher retail costs, smaller portions, and fewer nut-filled treats in the months ahead.