Extreme weather events are significantly impacting grocery prices, with olive oil emerging as one of the most affected products. Mediterranean droughts have caused a dramatic surge in olive oil prices, creating opportunities for fraud, where adulterated or misrepresented oils are sold as high-quality extra virgin olive oil.
The rise in olive oil prices has been staggering, largely driven by severe droughts and heat waves in key producing regions. Javier Blas, Bloomberg’s olive oil expert, attributes this to the ongoing climate crisis. The price surge has also given rise to fraudulent activities, with criminals taking advantage of the situation by selling low-grade or adulterated oils as premium extra virgin varieties.
A report from the European Union, obtained under the Freedom of Information Act, reveals a record number of olive oil fraud cases in early 2024. However, experts believe the actual extent of the crime is much higher, as many cases go unreported. Fraud can involve mixing high-quality olive oil with cheaper adulterants or passing off low-grade oils as extra virgin by adding substances like chlorophyll. In July, Italian authorities seized 42 tons of fake olive oil worth nearly $1 million, along with 623 liters of chlorophyll and 71 tons of an unnamed “oily substance.”
Olive theft is also on the rise. Spanish police recently foiled an attempt to steal over 465 kilograms of olives, highlighting the lengths to which criminals are going to profit from soaring olive oil prices. With olive oil now being referred to as “liquid gold,” the surge in fraud comes as no surprise.
While cases of olive oil fraud have been recorded for millennia—dating back to 2,400 BC in ancient Syria—extreme weather events have heightened the risks. The UK’s National Food Crime Unit has cited climate change as a key factor driving food crime, and a recent report from the UK Food Standards Agency (FSA) emphasizes the increasing likelihood of fraud in high-value commodities like olive oil, coffee, chocolate, and orange juice.
Though olive oil fraud is more prevalent in some regions, the possibility of counterfeit products entering global markets is growing. According to the FSA, 97% of food tested in the UK in 2024 was found to be authentic, but the evolving risks posed by climate change, supply chain disruptions, and economic pressures mean that consumers should remain vigilant.
With extreme weather events becoming more frequent, the threat to global food security—and the risk of food fraud—will only continue to rise. As the cost of premium olive oil and other commodities like orange juice and coffee soars, the opportunity for criminals to profit from counterfeit products will likely expand. Consumers are advised to be cautious and seek trusted sources to ensure the authenticity of their purchases.