Madrid: The global olive oil crisis is showing signs of relief as prices fall from record highs, thanks to a bumper harvest in Spain and other Mediterranean countries. However, industry experts caution that depleted global stocks and surging demand may prevent prices from returning to pre-crisis lows.
Spain, the world’s largest olive oil producer, has seen its harvest improve by 77% in the 2024-2025 season. The Andalusia region alone is expected to yield about 1 million metric tons of olive oil. Coupled with strong outputs from Greece, Portugal, Tunisia, and Turkey, global production is projected to reach 3.4 million tons, up from 2.6 million tons in the previous year.
This turnaround has led to wholesale prices of top-quality Spanish extra virgin olive oil falling by about 55%, from a peak of $10,000 per ton in February to $4,250 per ton. Retail prices are expected to follow suit, with olive oil likely to drop from over €10 per liter to around €5 per liter.
For Southern Europeans, who rely heavily on olive oil in daily life, this price drop offers much-needed relief after two years of inflationary strain. In Spain, where the average annual consumption is 14 liters per person, households have spent over €450 on olive oil alone during the crisis.
Despite this reprieve, experts highlight two factors that could keep prices elevated:
1. Depleted Inventories: Global olive oil stocks hit a 57-year low in the 2023-2024 season, and it may take several years of strong harvests to replenish them.
2. Rising Demand: The popularity of the Mediterranean diet has driven worldwide olive oil consumption up by 100% over the last 30 years. Demand continues to surge in countries like the U.S., France, and the U.K., where consumption has grown 300% to 1,100% since the 1990s.
Although the immediate crisis has abated, the combination of limited supply and growing demand means olive oil prices are unlikely to fall significantly. For olive farmers, this shift could mean a sustainable livelihood after years of market volatility.