Export demand for Indian wheat, corn, and spices has shot up after Russia launched a military operation against Ukraine, forcing the international trade of agricultural commodities to shift sourcing to India since supplies from the two nations have come to a grinding halt.
The prices of wheat at the Kandla port have increased from ₹2,200 per quintal to ₹2,350-2,400 per quintal in the last four days. The next crop will be harvested only after Baisakhi (April 13). Most of the wheat stocks in India are held by the government agency FCI, which is not exporting the commodity. Wheat traders want the FCI to release more wheat into the market, which will help keep domestic prices under control, reduce excess stocks and also meet export demand.
However, the processing industry is worried and will be requesting the government to immediately stop the export of wheat from the country as the local prices have jumped from ₹21 per kg before the outbreak of the war to ₹24 per kg. The export demand is so huge that if it is not stopped, the prices could increase further and may also lead to shortages in the future.
Apart from wheat, demand for Indian corn has increased as buyers from India’s immediate neighbourhood shifted from Ukraine to India.
Ukraine used to be a big exporter of non-GMO corn. Due to tensions in the Black Sea region and high freight rates, the demand for maize from South Asia will now shift to India as no other origin can feed this demand.
India’s corn exports have been increasing for the past two years as supplies from Myanmar dwindled after the military coup in that country. The growing export of Indian corn has led to an increase in prices. The farm gate price of corn has increased from ₹19.50–20 per kg to ₹22 per kg. It may hover there or come down slightly by May.
Prices of spices have also increased due to local shortages and strong global demand. Ukraine is one of the major exporters of coriander seeds. Coriander prices have increased about 30% during the past few months as the crop is smaller and there is increased demand for exported Indian coriander as supplies from the Black Sea region will be restricted.
Due to reduced production and geopolitical factors, jeera prices have jumped 25–30% in the last four months. For geopolitical reasons, India is now the only prominent jeera supplier. Supplies from countries such as Afghanistan, Turkey, and Syria have been disrupted.
The poultry industry is gearing up to ensure that prices of soybeans, which are used as chicken feed, remain under control.