The global soybean market is experiencing downward pressure on prices, driven by expectations of record production. Shankar Thakkar, president of the All India Edible Oil Traders Federation, highlighted that the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently increased its 2024/25 soybean production forecast to 4.589 billion bushels, exceeding prior estimates and signaling a potential surplus.
Key updates from the USDA report include:
- United States: Expected soybean production is set at a record 124.9 million tonnes, up from 113.4 million tonnes last year.
- Brazil: Forecasted to produce 169 million tonnes, an increase from 153 million tonnes in the previous year.
- Argentina: Estimated production has also risen to 51 million tonnes, compared to 49 million tonnes last year.
The global production estimate now stands at 428.7 million tonnes, up from 395.2 million tonnes last year, indicating a significant rise in supply.
In India, soybean production is projected to be between 12.5 and 13 million tonnes, with ample carryover stock. Thakkar suggested that if the government maintains current import duties, consumers could benefit from affordable soybean oil prices due to the global abundance.