Prices of key pulses have risen sharply in recent weeks, prompting renewed debate over whether India should reduce import duties to improve supplies and contain food inflation. However, industry stakeholders remain divided over whether cheaper imports would translate into lower consumer prices.
Wholesale prices of chana have increased around 11% over the past month, while moong has risen 10.6%, tur 6.5% and matar about 6%. The price increases have been attributed to rainfall deficiencies in major producing states, tighter global supplies, rupee depreciation and stronger festive demand.
India imports around 6–7 million tonnes of pulses annually, equivalent to about 18–20% of domestic consumption. Import expenditure is estimated at $3.63 billion. Red lentils and chickpeas currently attract a 10% import duty, while yellow peas carry a 30% duty. The government has already permitted duty-free imports of pigeon peas and black gram until March 2027.
Pulse production increased from 24.49 million tonnes in 2023-24 to 25.23 million tonnes in 2024-25 and is estimated at 27.41 million tonnes in 2025-26. Imports rose from 4.74 million tonnes in 2023-24 to 6.50 million tonnes in 2024-25 and are estimated at around 6 million tonnes in 2025-26.
Weather risk drives price concerns
Bimal Kothari, chairman of the Indian Pulses and Grains Association, attributed the price increase to drought conditions, disruptions in global yellow pea supplies and the depreciation of the rupee. Drought has been reported in Karnataka and large parts of Maharashtra, both important producers of tur and chana. Disruptions to Russian yellow pea supplies have also increased dependence on Canada.
Despite the price increase, Kothari said there is no immediate supply shortage. Government agencies NAFED and NCCF are estimated to hold around 2 million tonnes of chana and 900,000–1 million tonnes of tur, which could help meet festive demand. He has opposed an immediate reduction in import duties, arguing that exporters could absorb the benefit by increasing dollar prices rather than passing lower costs to Indian consumers.
Shashi Singh, partner, Agriculture, Food & Agribusiness at PwC India, said the market is responding more to uncertainty over future supplies than to an immediate shortage. Deficient rainfall, concerns over kharif yields and uncertainty around rabi sowing are contributing to higher prices, while tighter global supplies are adding to the pressure.
Production outlook remains uncertain
Former NITI Aayog member and ICRIER professor Ramesh Chand has taken a more cautious view of the production outlook. He noted that rainfall deficiency has exceeded 10%, with particularly significant shortfalls in Maharashtra and Karnataka, raising the possibility of lower kharif pulse production.
Chand also warned that rainfall conditions could affect chickpea production in the following season. Since much of India’s pulse cultivation is rain-fed, fluctuations in rainfall can lead to significant variations in output and prices.
He said the government has two principal tools to manage production shortfalls—buffer stocks and imports. Stock releases could help moderate prices, while imports could compensate for domestic shortages. However, he expects price pressure to remain despite these measures.
Industry seeks predictable import policy
The debate has also highlighted concerns over the consistency of India’s pulse import policy. Chand said frequent changes, including import restrictions and higher duties, can discourage overseas suppliers from maintaining regular supply relationships with India.
A more predictable import regime could allow the country to respond faster when domestic production falls. Duty-free imports of selected pulses are expected to provide some relief, although stakeholders do not expect them to completely eliminate price pressures.
Farmers, however, are preparing for a potentially tighter market. Maharashtra-based farmer leader Anil Ghanwat expects lower production and said imports could become necessary as early as December if domestic arrivals fall short. Traders and processors are already responding to expectations of lower supplies by seeking to secure pulses at higher prices.
Yellow peas have emerged as another pressure point because they are widely used as a substitute for chana in food processing. Disruptions in Russian supplies have pushed prices higher and increased India’s dependence on Canada. While some stakeholders oppose lowering the existing 30% duty, others favour a stable import policy and diversified sourcing.
The import-duty debate therefore presents a policy trade-off. Lower duties could make imported pulses cheaper and help contain consumer prices during supply shortages, but could also reduce the incentive for farmers to expand pulse cultivation.
The immediate market outlook will depend on the kharif harvest and subsequent rabi sowing. While existing stocks and duty-free imports of selected pulses could help meet near-term demand, weather conditions and domestic production will determine whether prices remain elevated in the months ahead.