Vietnam, the world’s top producer of robusta coffee, is set to harvest its largest crop in four years, offering relief to a global market strained by shortages and soaring prices.
Output for the 2025-26 season is projected to rise 6% from last year to 1.76 million tons, or about 29.4 million 60-kg bags, according to a Bloomberg survey of traders, producers, exporters, and analysts. That would mark Vietnam’s biggest harvest since 2021-22.
“The coffee trees are currently in good condition, with the harvest set to begin next month,” said Trinh Duc Minh, chairman of the Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Association in Dak Lak province, the country’s largest growing region. “The weather has been favorable, with abundant rainfall.”
A stronger flow of robusta beans could help offset supply disruptions from previous poor harvests and temper prices, which spiked 42% last month. Robusta futures in London surged earlier this week before easing, while arabica in New York hit near-record highs amid concerns over tight Brazilian supplies, US tariffs, and profit-taking, pushing volatility to a four-year high.
“Although market concerns have now shifted toward a potential shortage of arabica, increased robusta availability in Vietnam and Brazil offers roasters a more affordable and accessible alternative,” said Laleska Moda, analyst at Hedgepoint Global Markets. “We’re also observing a notable shift in demand toward robusta this year.”
The US Department of Agriculture forecasts Vietnam’s output at 31 million bags for 2025-26, while industry estimates range between 27 and 32 million bags.
Farmers, buoyed by higher prices, have expanded cultivation and invested in better crop management. Some have even switched from durian to coffee, according to EaPok Coffee JSC, a Dak Lak-based producer expecting its output to rise 30% this year.
Still, risks remain. Excess rain during harvesting could disrupt drying, delay shipments, and affect bean quality. At the same time, Vietnam’s domestic consumption is rising sharply. StoneX Group projects local demand will jump 22% to 4.9 million bags in 2025-26, which could limit export availability.
Global stockpiles also remain tight, suggesting that while Vietnam’s bumper harvest may ease the supply crunch, prices are likely to stay elevated in the near term.