Global coffee prices may witness a decline in the coming months, with industry experts drawing parallels with the recent boom-and-bust cycle seen in cocoa, discussions at the annual convention of the National Coffee Association indicated.
Analysts said the strong rally in coffee prices over the past two years, driven by weather-related supply disruptions and trade uncertainties, could be followed by a correction similar to what happened in the cocoa market after prices hit record highs in 2024.
Cocoa prices in New York had surged to over $12,000 per tonne in December 2024 due to poor harvests in key producing countries, but later fell more than 70% as high costs forced consumers to cut back on premium chocolate purchases and manufacturers reduced pack sizes or switched to cheaper alternatives.
At the conference held in Tampa, market strategist Carley Garner of DeCarley Trading said coffee could follow the same path. She noted that high prices are already affecting consumption patterns, making the market vulnerable to a correction.
Arabica coffee prices had risen sharply after adverse weather conditions affected crops in major producing regions and trade flows were impacted by tariff-related uncertainties. However, expectations of higher production in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee grower, have recently pushed prices lower.
Market analysts said elevated prices have led consumers to change their buying behaviour. A recent industry survey in the United States found that a majority of respondents had taken steps to reduce spending on coffee, including cutting visits to cafés, switching to cheaper brands, or consuming more coffee at home.
Traders also reported a shift in demand from premium arabica beans to lower-cost robusta varieties, as roasters look to manage costs amid volatile commodity prices.
Industry experts said that while demand growth slowed in 2025 compared with historical trends, lower prices could eventually support recovery in consumption. However, some analysts believe the coffee market may not crash as sharply as cocoa because supply conditions remain uncertain and farmers in producing countries are expected to release stocks gradually rather than flooding the market.
With forecasts pointing to a strong crop in Brazil this year, the direction of coffee prices will largely depend on how quickly new supply reaches the market and whether consumer demand rebounds after the recent period of high prices.