India’s refined sunflower oil sales volume is expected to decline by around 10% in the current fiscal, as supply chain disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions in West Asia and rising prices weigh on demand, according to a report by Crisil Ratings.
The report highlights two key challenges impacting the category: logistical disruptions due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the pass-through of higher freight and insurance costs, which have pushed up retail prices. As a result, consumers are likely to shift towards more affordable edible oils such as rice bran and soybean oil.
Despite the anticipated drop in volumes, overall industry revenues are expected to remain stable, supported by higher realizations. Profitability for refiners is also likely to hold steady, aided by inventory gains from previously procured lower-cost stock, which will offset the impact of reduced volumes.
India’s sunflower oil segment, which accounts for approximately 12–14% of the country’s total edible oil consumption of 25–26 million tonnes, remains heavily dependent on imports—primarily from Russia and Ukraine. Ongoing geopolitical tensions have forced vessels to take longer routes, such as around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing transit time and freight costs.
Additionally, shipments passing through sensitive zones are incurring higher war-risk insurance premiums, further inflating the landed cost of crude sunflower oil. Prices have risen sharply to $1,420–1,440 per tonne, compared to an average of $1,275 per tonne over the past year.
The impact is already visible at the retail level, with refined sunflower oil prices climbing to ₹170–175 per litre, up from around ₹150 per litre in January 2026. In comparison, rice bran and soybean oils are currently priced ₹10–20 per litre lower, accelerating the shift in consumer preference.
The report also notes a tightening of inventory levels among domestic refiners. Typically maintained at 30–45 days, stock levels have dropped to 20–30 days due to slower replenishment cycles and supply uncertainty. While this has temporarily improved liquidity through the release of working capital, prolonged disruptions could further strain supplies and pricing.
With global uncertainties persisting, the edible oil industry may continue to face volatility in sourcing, pricing, and consumption patterns in the months ahead.