The Union Government’s decision to reopen wheat exports after a four-year restriction has triggered concern among sections of the trading community, with domestic wholesale prices rising soon after the announcement.
The government lifted restrictions on the export of wheat and wheat-based products, including atta, maida and suji, on August 24. Traders say the move has come at a sensitive time for the domestic market and could put further pressure on prices if exports gather momentum.
Shankar Thakkar, National Secretary of the Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT), has urged the government to suspend the export order, warning that allowing overseas shipments could affect domestic price stability.
According to Thakkar, wheat prices in the domestic market increased by more than Rs 200 per quintal shortly after the export restrictions were relaxed.
The impact has been visible in Maharashtra’s agricultural wholesale markets. In Mumbai mandis, wheat prices have reportedly increased from around Rs 2,900 per quintal on August 17 to approximately Rs 3,100 per quintal. The domestic increase comes at a time when international wheat prices have also moved close to three-year highs.
The development, however, has divided the trading community. One section believes that large-scale exports may remain limited because Indian wheat is currently around $30 per tonne more expensive than supplies available from competing international origins. This price difference could make Indian wheat less attractive to overseas buyers.
Others are more concerned about the months ahead. Global weather forecasts indicating the possibility of El Niño conditions persisting through March 2027 have raised concerns about their potential impact on the upcoming Rabi crop cycle. Any pressure on production, combined with higher exports, could tighten domestic availability and push prices further upward.
For consumers, the immediate impact has so far remained relatively limited. Thakkar said the rise in wholesale prices has not yet been fully passed on at retail counters. The average retail price of wheat across the country currently stands at about Rs 31.58 per kg, although prices range widely from around Rs 22 to Rs 55 per kg depending on the market.
However, traders caution that if wholesale prices continue to rise, retailers, flour mills and other processors may eventually be forced to pass on the higher procurement costs. This could result in increased prices not only for wheat but also for everyday wheat-based products such as atta, maida and suji.
Calling for an immediate review of the decision, Thakkar said the government should take lessons from earlier experiences involving export relaxations in essential commodities such as sugar, where changes in export policy were followed by concerns over domestic availability and prices.
CAIT has therefore urged the Centre to suspend the wheat export relaxation and reassess domestic stocks, expected production, international price movements and the outlook for the next Rabi crop before allowing exports to continue.