India’s agricultural economy is moving into a new phase in which changing consumer diets, rising incomes and climate pressures are reshaping what farmers produce and how the sector grows, according to a new study published in the Indian Journal of Agricultural Sciences.
The paper, ‘Beyond the Green Revolution: Unravelling New Dynamics of India’s Agrifood System Transformation’, has been authored by Mangi Lal Jat, Director General, Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR); Pratap Singh Birthal, Distinguished Fellow, Research and Information System for Developing Countries (RIS); and Sedithippa Janarthanan Balaji, Professor, Institute of Economic Growth (IEG).
The study identifies three broad phases in India’s agrifood transformation since the Green Revolution. The first, from around 1967 to 1995, was dominated by the need to achieve food security. The adoption of high-yielding rice and wheat varieties, expansion of irrigation, increased fertiliser use, agricultural research and rural infrastructure helped foodgrain production rise from around 74 million tonnes in 1966-67 to 152 million tonnes in 1983-84.
However, the concentration on rice and wheat and intensive use of groundwater and other agricultural inputs also contributed to environmental pressures in some regions, including groundwater depletion, declining soil fertility, biodiversity loss and pollution.
A second phase, from 1996 to 2014, saw rising incomes, urbanisation, economic reforms and changing food preferences increase demand for fruits, vegetables, milk, meat, eggs and fish.
The shift in consumption is reflected in household spending. The share of cereals in rural food expenditure fell from around 57% in 1972-73 to 10.6% in 2022-23, while the share of high-value foods increased from about 20% to 48.1%. In urban areas, the cereal share declined from 37% to 9.2%.
The study notes that agriculture is consequently being influenced increasingly by consumer demand, rather than only by the traditional objective of increasing staple grain production.
High-value sectors gain momentum
Agricultural growth has also become more broad-based. Agricultural GVA growth averaged 2.71% between 1967 and 1995 and 2.98% during 1996-2014, before accelerating to 4.51% during 2015-2025.
While foodgrains were the principal driver in the earlier period, horticulture, dairy, fisheries and poultry have expanded rapidly in recent years.
Between 2015 and 2025, milk production increased by around 10 million tonnes annually, while fisheries and poultry also recorded strong growth. Rice and wheat production continued to rise, supported particularly by higher yields.
The study therefore views diversification not as a move away from cereals, but as the emergence of a broader agricultural economy in which foodgrains coexist with higher-value and demand-driven sectors.
Technology focus expands
The technology agenda is also changing from simply raising yields to improving resilience and resource efficiency.
Between 1969 and 2025, India released 7,206 crop varieties, including 3,236 during 2014-2025. Of the varieties released in the latter period, 2,996 were identified as climate-resilient and 187 as biofortified.
The study points to growing demand for technologies that can help farmers manage drought, pests, diseases and climate variability while improving the efficiency of land and water use.
Digital tools are also becoming part of the agricultural ecosystem, with remote sensing, geospatial systems, digital advisory platforms, pest surveillance and initiatives such as AgriStack increasingly being integrated into farmer services and agricultural governance.
Value chains become central to farm growth
The transformation extends beyond the farm, with markets, infrastructure, finance, cooperatives and food processing playing a growing role in agricultural performance.
The dairy sector illustrates this institutional expansion. Dairy cooperative societies increased from 13,284 in 1981 to 235,877 in 2024, while annual milk procurement rose from 0.94 million tonnes to 24.16 million tonnes.
Gross capital formation in agriculture increased from Rs 427 billion in 1967 to Rs 4,908 billion in 2024, while outstanding agricultural credit rose from Rs 470 billion to Rs 16,234 billion over the broader period examined by the study.
The findings highlight the growing importance of farmers’ connections to markets, finance, infrastructure and consumers. Better storage and cold chains can reduce post-harvest losses, while food processing can increase the value of agricultural output. Improved logistics can expand market access and finance can support investment in technology and diversification.
Policy priorities evolve
The study calls for agricultural policy to place greater emphasis on resource conservation, diversification, climate resilience, market development, value addition and farmer incomes, while continuing to maintain food security as a core objective.
This would require stronger storage and cold-chain infrastructure, improved wholesale markets, greater processing capacity and more efficient logistics. It also points to the need for closer coordination between policies covering water, energy, climate, trade, nutrition and rural development.
India’s agricultural transformation, the study concludes, is therefore moving beyond the Green Revolution’s central objective of producing more grain. The emerging focus is on creating greater value, improving nutrition and diversifying production while using every hectare of land and unit of water more efficiently.